Fund
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction Funding 45.9%
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 44.6%
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) 43.2%
Dilution of Iran's Uranium 42.5%
No price history yet
No price history yet.
$410K Vol.
Trading for this event closes at this date and time. New orders are not accepted after that.
Rules
- Resolver: official source.
- Deadline: closing date in UTC.
- Disputed outcomes: handled by moderators within 48 hours.
24h volume$773.51
Liquidity$65K
Outcomes6
Frequently Asked Questions
"What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polywox with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iran Reconstruction Funding" at 46%, followed by "Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" has generated $410K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polywox community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?", browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade". If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" is "Iran Reconstruction Funding" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?". The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Comments